This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 43% to break even | 19%–65% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 43% to break even | 33%–72% | 10 points betterwon 53%, needs 43% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 43% to break even | 12%–65% | 10 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 10 of 1567%needs 43% to break even | 46%–83% | 23 points betterwon 67%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 12 of 2157%needs 43% to break even | 40%–73% | 14 points betterwon 57%, needs 43% |
Tonight ORE plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ILL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against ore -13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 3 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | -2 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 18 | 84 | +70.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | -8 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 9 | -34 | -47.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 23 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 29 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 2 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 46 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | -10 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 6 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 34 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 20 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 66 | +52.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 46 | +32.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.