This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 39% to break even | 44%–95% | 41 points betterwon 80%, needs 39% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 39% to break even | 35%–81% | 21 points betterwon 60%, needs 39% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 39% to break even | 39%–78% | 21 points betterwon 60%, needs 39% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 39% to break even | 35%–88% | 27 points betterwon 67%, needs 39% |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 39% to break even | 26%–68% | 7 points betterwon 46%, needs 39% |
| Every game | 10 of 1953%needs 39% to break even | 35%–70% | 13 points betterwon 53%, needs 39% |
Tonight CLEM plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against VT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against clem -6.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 6.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 37 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | -28 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 25 | 14 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 15 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | -41 | -47.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | -12 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 14 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 35 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 1 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 14 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | -1 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | -11 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 31 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 28 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | -13 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | -3 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 11 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | -7 | -13.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.