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NBAPlayer propAssists
Jamal Murray under 7.5 assists
Won13 of 15last 15 games · 87%
Best price-168Kalshi
Price needs62.7%wins to break even
Every game55 of 84this season and last
Trend score0.7Slight
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 63% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 63% to break even | 65%–100% | 37 points betterwon 100%, needs 63% | 4.6assists |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 63% to break even | 65%–98% | 27 points betterwon 90%, needs 63% | 5.9assists |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 63% to break even | 67%–95% | 24 points betterwon 87%, needs 63% | 6.3assists |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 63% to break even | 27%–100% | 37 points betterwon 100%, needs 63% | 3assists |
| Last season | 54 of 8365%needs 63% to break even | 56%–73% | 2 points betterwon 65%, needs 63% | 7assists |
| Every game | 55 of 8465%needs 63% to break even | 57%–73% | 3 points betterwon 65%, needs 63% | 6.9assists |
Games like tonight
Tonight DEN plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 12 of 24 without Johnson · 29 of 40 at home.
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Every book's price
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Jamal Murray under 7.5 assists1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Assists in each game against under 7.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Assists | Beat 7.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 |  OKC | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 |  MIN | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Apr 27 | MIN | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 25 | MIN | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Apr 23 | MIN | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Apr 20 | MIN | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 18 | MIN | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 8 |  MEM | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Apr 6 |  POR | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 4 |  SA | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Apr 1 |  UTAH | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 29 |  GS | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 27 | UTAH | 14 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Mar 25 |  DAL | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 24 |  PHX | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 22 | POR | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 20 |  TOR | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 18 | MEM | 12 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Mar 17 |  PHI | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 14 |  LAL | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 12 | SA | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 11 |  HOU | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Mar 9 | OKC | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 6 |  NY | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Mar 5 | LAL | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 2 | UTAH | 8 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 1 | MIN | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Feb 27 | OKC | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 25 |  BOS | 1 | +6.5 | Won |
| Feb 22 | GS | 2 | +5.5 | Won |
| Feb 20 | POR | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 19 |  LAC | 8 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 15 | STRIPES | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Feb 15 | STARS | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 | MEM | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 9 |  CLE | 11 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Feb 7 |  CHI | 11 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Feb 4 | NY | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 3 |  DET | 8 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 1 | OKC | 12 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Jan 30 | LAC | 9 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 29 |  BKN | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 27 | DET | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 22 |  WSH | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 20 | LAL | 11 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Jan 18 |  CHA | 2 | +5.5 | Won |
| Jan 17 | WSH | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 14 | DAL | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 13 |  NO | 9 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 7 | BOS | 17 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | BKN | 16 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Jan 2 | CLE | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 31 | TOR | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 29 |  MIA | 11 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 |  ORL | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Dec 25 | MIN | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 23 | DAL | 14 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 22 | UTAH | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 20 | HOU | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 18 | ORL | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Dec 15 | HOU | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 11 |  SAC | 9 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | CHA | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 5 |  ATL | 12 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Dec 3 |  IND | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 1 | DAL | 9 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | PHX | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 28 | SA | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 24 | MEM | 8 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | SAC | 9 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 21 | HOU | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 19 | NO | 8 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 17 | CHI | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | MIN | 12 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | LAC | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 11 | SAC | 8 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 7 | GS | 8 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 5 | MIA | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 3 | SAC | 7 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 31 | POR | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 29 | NO | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 27 | MIN | 3 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | PHX | 5 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 23 | GS | 10 | -2.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 assistsJamal Murray · Today 9:00 PM ETWithout Johnson |  +134at Kalshi | 29 of 83· last season35%needs 43% to break even12 of 24 without Johnson · 11 of 40 at home | Record is last season's | -32.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.