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NBAGame lineMoneyline
MIL to win (moneyline)
Won32 of 82last season · 39%
Best price+456Kalshi
Price needs18.0%wins to break even
Every game32 of 83this season and last
Trend score-2.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 18% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 18% to break even | 5%–56% | 2 points betterwon 20%, needs 18% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 18% to break even | 13%–56% | 12 points betterwon 30%, needs 18% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 18% to break even | 13%–48% | 9 points betterwon 27%, needs 18% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 18% to break even | 0%–73% | 18 points shortwon 0%, needs 18% |
| Last season | 32 of 8239%needs 18% to break even | 31%–48% | 21 points betterwon 39%, needs 18% |
| Every game | 32 of 8339%needs 18% to break even | 30%–48% | 21 points betterwon 39%, needs 18% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against PHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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MIL to win (moneyline)2 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Margin in each game against mil to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 |  WSH | -12 | -12 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 12 |  PHI | -20 | -20 | Lost |
| Apr 10 |  BKN | 17 | +17 | Won |
| Apr 8 |  DET | -26 | -26 | Lost |
| Apr 7 | BKN | -6 | -6 | Lost |
| Apr 5 |  MEM | 16 | +16 | Won |
| Apr 3 |  BOS | -32 | -32 | Lost |
| Apr 1 |  HOU | -6 | -6 | Lost |
| Mar 31 |  DAL | 24 | +24 | Won |
| Mar 29 |  LAC | -14 | -14 | Lost |
| Mar 28 |  SA | -32 | -32 | Lost |
| Mar 25 |  POR | -31 | -31 | Lost |
| Mar 23 | LAC | -33 | -33 | Lost |
| Mar 21 |  PHX | 3 | +3 | Won |
| Mar 19 |  UTAH | -32 | -32 | Lost |
| Mar 17 |  CLE | -7 | -7 | Lost |
| Mar 15 |  IND | 11 | +11 | Won |
| Mar 14 |  ATL | -23 | -23 | Lost |
| Mar 12 |  MIA | -7 | -7 | Lost |
| Mar 10 | PHX | -15 | -15 | Lost |
| Mar 8 |  ORL | -39 | -39 | Lost |
| Mar 7 | UTAH | 14 | +14 | Won |
| Mar 4 | ATL | -18 | -18 | Lost |
| Mar 2 | BOS | -27 | -27 | Lost |
| Mar 1 |  CHI | -23 | -23 | Lost |
| Feb 27 |  NY | -29 | -29 | Lost |
| Feb 25 | CLE | 2 | +2 | Won |
| Feb 24 | MIA | 11 | +11 | Won |
| Feb 22 |  TOR | -28 | -28 | Lost |
| Feb 20 |  NO | 21 | +21 | Won |
| Feb 12 |  OKC | 17 | +17 | Won |
| Feb 11 | ORL | 8 | +8 | Won |
| Feb 9 | ORL | -19 | -19 | Lost |
| Feb 6 | IND | 6 | +6 | Won |
| Feb 4 | NO | 4 | +4 | Won |
| Feb 3 | CHI | 16 | +16 | Won |
| Feb 1 | BOS | -28 | -28 | Lost |
| Jan 29 | WSH | -10 | -10 | Lost |
| Jan 27 | PHI | -17 | -17 | Lost |
| Jan 23 |  DEN | -2 | -2 | Lost |
| Jan 21 | OKC | -20 | -20 | Lost |
| Jan 19 | ATL | 2 | +2 | Won |
| Jan 15 | SA | -18 | -18 | Lost |
| Jan 13 |  MIN | -33 | -33 | Lost |
| Jan 11 | DEN | -4 | -4 | Lost |
| Jan 9 |  LAL | 4 | +4 | Won |
| Jan 7 |  GS | -7 | -7 | Lost |
| Jan 4 |  SAC | 17 | +17 | Won |
| Jan 2 |  CHA | 1 | +1 | Won |
| Dec 31 | WSH | -1 | -1 | Lost |
| Dec 29 | CHA | 10 | +10 | Won |
| Dec 27 | CHI | 9 | +9 | Won |
| Dec 26 | MEM | -21 | -21 | Lost |
| Dec 23 | IND | 17 | +17 | Won |
| Dec 21 | MIN | -3 | -3 | Lost |
| Dec 18 | TOR | -6 | -6 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | BKN | -45 | -45 | Lost |
| Dec 11 | BOS | 15 | +15 | Won |
| Dec 6 | DET | -12 | -12 | Lost |
| Dec 5 | PHI | -15 | -15 | Lost |
| Dec 3 | DET | 4 | +4 | Won |
| Dec 1 | WSH | -3 | -3 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | BKN | 17 | +17 | Won |
| Nov 28 | NY | -9 | -9 | Lost |
| Nov 26 | MIA | -3 | -3 | Lost |
| Nov 24 | POR | -12 | -12 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | DET | -13 | -13 | Lost |
| Nov 20 | PHI | -9 | -9 | Lost |
| Nov 17 | CLE | -12 | -12 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | LAL | -24 | -24 | Lost |
| Nov 14 | CHA | 13 | +13 | Won |
| Nov 12 | CHA | -11 | -11 | Lost |
| Nov 10 | DAL | 2 | +2 | Won |
| Nov 9 | HOU | -7 | -7 | Lost |
| Nov 7 | CHI | 16 | +16 | Won |
| Nov 4 | TOR | -28 | -28 | Lost |
| Nov 3 | IND | 2 | +2 | Won |
| Nov 1 | SAC | -2 | -2 | Lost |
| Oct 30 | GS | 10 | +10 | Won |
| Oct 28 | NY | 10 | +10 | Won |
| Oct 26 | CLE | -5 | -5 | Lost |
| Oct 24 | TOR | 6 | +6 | Won |
| Oct 22 | WSH | 13 | +13 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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