This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 44% to break even | 65%–100% | 56 points betterwon 100%, needs 44% | 100.8points |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 44% to break even | 65%–98% | 46 points betterwon 90%, needs 44% | 106.8points |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 44% to break even | 67%–95% | 43 points betterwon 87%, needs 44% | 107.7points |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 44% to break even | 27%–100% | 56 points betterwon 100%, needs 44% | 106points |
| Last season | 60 of 10060%needs 44% to break even | 52%–68% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% | 117.4points |
| Every game | 61 of 10160%needs 44% to break even | 52%–68% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% | 117.3points |
Tonight CLE plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against BKN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 30 of 50 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
CLE points in each game against under 119.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | CLE points | Beat 119.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 106 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 25 | 93 | +26.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | 108 | +11.5 | Won | |
| May 21 | 93 | +26.5 | Won | |
| May 19 | 104 | +15.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 125 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| May 15 | 94 | +25.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | 117 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 112 | +7.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 116 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 7 | 97 | +22.5 | Won | |
| May 5 | 101 | +18.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | 114 | +5.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 110 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 125 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 89 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 104 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 115 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 126 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 130 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 102 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 122 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 142 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 117 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 118 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 113 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 122 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 149 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 103 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 136 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 111 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 115 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 123 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 120 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 138 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 122 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 115 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 98 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 113 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 106 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 119 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 116 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 109 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 113 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 118 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 112 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 138 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 119 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 132 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 124 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 130 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 113 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 129 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 114 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 119 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 123 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 94 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 104 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 117 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 133 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 112 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 146 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 122 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 120 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 110 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 113 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 129 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 113 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 100 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 124 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 141 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 139 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 125 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 17 | 111 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 111 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 130 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 94 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 130 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 110 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 135 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 115 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 123 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 99 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 120 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 120 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 104 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 118 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 108 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | 113 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 130 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 138 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 128 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 148 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 132 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 117 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 101 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 105 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 116 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 118 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 131 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 111 | +8.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 119.5 team totalCleveland Cavaliers · Today 7:30 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 40 of 100· last season40%needs 63% to break even20 of 50 at home | Record is last season's | -50.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 121.5 team totalCleveland Cavaliers · Today 7:30 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 36 of 100· last season36%needs 55% to break even17 of 50 at home | Record is last season's | -43.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 123.5 team totalCleveland Cavaliers · Today 7:30 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 29 of 100· last season29%needs 48% to break even15 of 50 at home | Record is last season's | -38.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 125.5 team totalCleveland Cavaliers · Today 7:30 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 24 of 100· last season24%needs 41% to break even13 of 50 at home | Record is last season's | -34.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 127.5 team totalCleveland Cavaliers · Today 7:30 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 23 of 100· last season23%needs 34% to break even12 of 50 at home | Record is last season's | -28.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.