This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 58% to break even | 65%–100% | 42 points betterwon 100%, needs 58% | 2.4points |
| Last 10 games | 10 of 10100%needs 58% to break even | 79%–100% | 42 points betterwon 100%, needs 58% | 2.5points |
| Last 15 games | 15 of 15100%needs 58% to break even | 85%–100% | 42 points betterwon 100%, needs 58% | 3.6points |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 58% to break even | 27%–100% | 42 points betterwon 100%, needs 58% | 3points |
| Last season | 37 of 8345%needs 58% to break even | 36%–54% | 13 points shortwon 45%, needs 58% | 11.3points |
| Every game | 38 of 8445%needs 58% to break even | 37%–54% | 13 points shortwon 45%, needs 58% | 11.2points |
Tonight CLE plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against BKN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 17 of 40 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 25 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| May 21 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 0 | +9.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | 0 | +9.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 1 | +8.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| May 7 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 5 | 0 | +9.5 | Won | |
| May 3 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 26 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 22 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 20 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 39 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 23 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 23 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 0 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 17 | 21 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 24 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 27 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 19 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 pointsJaylon Tyson · Today 7:30 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 46 of 83· last season55%needs 49% to break even23 of 40 at home | Record is last season's | -35.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 threesJaylon Tyson · Today 7:30 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 42 of 83· last season51%needs 41% to break even21 of 40 at home | Record is last season's | -28.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.