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NBAPlayer propPoints
Nickeil Alexander-Walker under 14.5 points
Won2 of 5last 5 games · 40%
Best price+198Kalshi
Price needs33.6%wins to break even
Every game17 of 85this season and last
Trend score-20.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 34% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points betterwon 40%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 34% to break even | 13%–56% | 4 points shortwon 30%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 34% to break even | 8%–41% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 34% to break even | 0%–73% | 34 points shortwon 0%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 17 of 8420%needs 34% to break even | 14%–28% | 13 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Every game | 17 of 8520%needs 34% to break even | 14%–28% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
Games like tonight
Tonight ATL plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against CHA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker under 14.5 points1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Points in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 |  ORL | 31 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 |  NY | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Apr 28 | NY | 16 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 25 | NY | 15 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 23 | NY | 14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 20 | NY | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Apr 18 | NY | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Apr 10 |  CLE | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Apr 8 | CLE | 25 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Apr 6 | NY | 36 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Apr 3 |  BKN | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Apr 1 | ORL | 32 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Mar 30 |  BOS | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 28 |  SAC | 27 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Mar 27 | BOS | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Mar 25 |  DET | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Mar 23 |  MEM | 26 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Mar 21 |  GS | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 20 |  HOU | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Mar 18 |  DAL | 22 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Mar 16 | ORL | 41 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Mar 14 |  MIL | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Mar 12 | BKN | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Mar 10 | DAL | 29 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Mar 7 |  PHI | 24 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Mar 4 | MIL | 23 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Mar 1 |  POR | 15 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 24 |  WSH | 16 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 22 | BKN | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 20 |  MIA | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Feb 19 | PHI | 14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 |  CHA | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Feb 9 |  MIN | 23 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Feb 7 | CHA | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 5 |  UTAH | 23 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Feb 3 | MIA | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Jan 31 |  IND | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Jan 29 | HOU | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Jan 28 | BOS | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Jan 26 | IND | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Jan 23 |  PHX | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 21 | MEM | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jan 19 | MIL | 32 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Jan 17 | BOS | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Jan 15 | POR | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jan 13 |  LAL | 26 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Jan 11 | GS | 24 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Jan 9 |  DEN | 22 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Jan 7 |  NO | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 5 |  TOR | 14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 3 | TOR | 31 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Jan 2 | NY | 23 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Dec 31 | MIN | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 29 |  OKC | 30 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | NY | 25 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Dec 26 | MIA | 15 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 23 |  CHI | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | CHI | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Dec 19 |  SA | 23 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Dec 18 | CHA | 28 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | PHI | 12 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 12 | DET | 22 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | WSH | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 5 | DEN | 30 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Dec 3 |  LAC | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Dec 1 | DET | 26 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | PHI | 34 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Nov 28 | CLE | 30 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Nov 25 | WSH | 8 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | CHA | 23 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | NO | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 20 | SA | 38 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Nov 18 | DET | 24 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | PHX | 26 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Nov 13 | UTAH | 16 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | SAC | 14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 7 | TOR | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 4 | ORL | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | CLE | 16 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 31 | IND | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Oct 29 | BKN | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 27 | CHI | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | OKC | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 24 | ORL | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 22 | TOR | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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