This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 64% to break even | 65%–100% | 36 points betterwon 100%, needs 64% | 16points |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 64% to break even | 44%–87% | 6 points betterwon 70%, needs 64% | 18.5points |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 64% to break even | 46%–83% | 3 points betterwon 67%, needs 64% | 18.3points |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 64% to break even | 27%–100% | 36 points betterwon 100%, needs 64% | 16points |
| Last season |
Tonight CLE plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against BKN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 16 of 42 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 34 of 8839%needs 64% to break even |
| 31%–47% |
| 25 points shortwon 39%, needs 64% |
| 22.7points |
| Every game | 35 of 8939%needs 64% to break even | 31%–48% | 24 points shortwon 39%, needs 64% | 22.6points |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 25 | 12 | +7.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 21 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 19 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 9 | +10.5 | Won | |
| May 15 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 13 | 30 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| May 9 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 7 | 10 | +9.5 | Won | |
| May 5 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 26 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 36 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 30 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 36 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 32 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 34 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 34 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 3 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 11 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 25 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 55 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 37 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 41 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 35 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 30 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| -175at BetRivers |
| 77 of 88· last season88%needs 64% to break even37 of 42 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 pointsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | -145at Fanatics | 74 of 88· last season84%needs 59% to break even36 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -15.8Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 pointsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 71 of 88· last season81%needs 52% to break even35 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 pointsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +115at Fanatics | 62 of 88· last season70%needs 47% to break even30 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 pointsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +144at FanDuel | 54 of 88· last season61%needs 41% to break even26 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -18.7Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 pointsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +170at Fanatics | 47 of 88· last season53%needs 37% to break even23 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -16.8Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 pointsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +210at Fanatics | 43 of 88· last season49%needs 32% to break even19 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +110at DraftKings |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 48% to break even14 of 42 at home |
| 1.5Slight |
| Under 7.5 assistsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | -155at BetMGM | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 61% to break even23 of 42 at home | 0.2Slight |
| Under 5.5 assistsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 38% to break even11 of 42 at home | -0.2Not beating its price |
| Gets a triple-doubleJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +5500at FanDuel | 2 of 88· last season2%needs 2% to break even1 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -1.5Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 reb + astJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | -128at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 56% to break even17 of 42 at home | -1.6Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 reboundsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +255at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 28% to break even14 of 42 at home | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 reboundsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 63 of 88· last season72%needs 62% to break even32 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 reboundsJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +125at BetRivers | 49 of 88· last season56%needs 44% to break even24 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 threesJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +135at BetRivers | 51 of 88· last season58%needs 43% to break even26 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -9.5Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 pts + reb + astJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | -116at BetOnline | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 54% to break even10 of 42 at home | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 threesJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 38% to break even9 of 42 at home | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 pts + rebJames Harden · Today 7:40 PM ET | -105at DraftKings | 63 of 88· last season72%needs 51% to break even32 of 42 at home | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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