This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 36% to break even | 0%–35% | 36 points shortwon 0%, needs 36% | 19.6points, rebounds and assists |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 36% to break even | 2%–35% | 26 points shortwon 10%, needs 36% | 22.6points, rebounds and assists |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 36% to break even | 8%–41% | 16 points shortwon 20%, needs 36% | 24.7points, rebounds and assists |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 36% to break even | 0%–58% | 36 points shortwon 0%, needs 36% | 24.5points, rebounds and assists |
| Last season | 16 of 7422%needs 36% to break even | 15%–30% | 14 points shortwon 22%, needs 36% | 23.2points, rebounds and assists |
| Every game | 16 of 7621%needs 36% to break even | 14%–30% | 15 points shortwon 21%, needs 36% | 23.2points, rebounds and assists |
Tonight DAL plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, on a back-to-back, against SA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 3 of 10 without Flagg · 9 of 38 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb + ast in each game against over 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb + ast | Beat 29.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 7 | 8 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 15 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 34 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 11 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 47 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | 37 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 14 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 20 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 9 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 15 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | 8 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 52 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 33 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 23 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 12 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 10 | 37 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 14 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 41 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 20 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 18 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 34 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 46 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 31 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 32 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 32 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | 35 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 23 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 23 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 11 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 14 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 18 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 35 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 20 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 19 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 12 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 19 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 12 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 19 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 10 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 38 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 19 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 40 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 27 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 13 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 9 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 7 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 13 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 5 | -24.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 pts + reb + astNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | -106at FanDuel | 47 of 74· last season64%needs 51% to break even5 of 10 without Flagg · 23 of 38 at home | Record is last season's | -10.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gets a triple-doubleNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | +8000at FanDuel | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 1% to break even0 of 10 without Flagg · 0 of 38 at home | -1.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 4.5 reboundsNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | +118at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 46% to break even3 of 10 without Flagg · 16 of 38 at home | -1.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 16.5 pointsNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | -124at Caesars | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 55% to break even3 of 10 without Flagg · 24 of 38 at home | -6.9Not beating its price | ||
| Gets a double-doubleNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | +970at DraftKings | 2 of 74· last season3%needs 9% to break even1 of 10 without Flagg · 2 of 38 at home | Record is last season's | -8.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 21.5 pts + rebNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | -118at FanDuel | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 54% to break even5 of 10 without Flagg · 24 of 38 at home | -9.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 threesNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | -186at FanDuel | 58 of 74· last season78%needs 65% to break even8 of 10 without Flagg · 28 of 38 at home | Record is last season's | -11.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 5.5 assistsNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | +217at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 32% to break even3 of 10 without Flagg · 6 of 38 at home | -11.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 9.5 reb + astNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | -120at FanDuel | 46 of 74· last season62%needs 55% to break even6 of 10 without Flagg · 22 of 38 at home | Record is last season's | -12.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 4.5 assistsNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | -134at Caesars | 58 of 74· last season78%needs 57% to break even7 of 10 without Flagg · 29 of 38 at home | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 5.5 reboundsNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | -199at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 67% to break even7 of 10 without Flagg · 23 of 38 at home | -15.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 14.5 pointsNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | +126at Polymarket | 34 of 74· last season46%needs 44% to break even1 of 10 without Flagg · 19 of 38 at home | Record is last season's | -17.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 pts + astNaji Marshall · Today 8:10 PM ETFlagg out: next up at SF | -146at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 59% to break even6 of 10 without Flagg · 16 of 38 at home | -18.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.