This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 51% to break even | 5%–56% | 31 points shortwon 20%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 51% to break even | 27%–73% | 1 points shortwon 50%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 51% to break even | 33%–72% | 3 points betterwon 53%, needs 51% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 51% to break even | 27%–100% | 49 points betterwon 100%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 37 of 8345%needs 51% to break even | 36%–54% | 6 points shortwon 45%, needs 51% |
| Every game | 38 of 8445%needs 51% to break even | 37%–54% | 6 points shortwon 45%, needs 51% |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q total points in each game against over 61.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 61.5 1st quarter totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 236.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET |
| Date | Opponent | 1Q total points | Beat 61.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 66 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 50 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 57 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 57 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 58 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 59 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 68 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 86 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 72 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 70 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 67 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 47 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 69 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 61 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 71 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 50 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 68 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 52 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 69 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 50 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 57 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 57 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 62 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 60 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 71 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 59 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 72 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 45 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 56 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 58 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 70 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 6 | 44 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 56 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 47 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 56 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 65 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 61 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 53 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 69 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 69 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 57 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 70 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 67 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 61 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 64 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 66 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 54 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 56 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 82 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 52 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 59 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 70 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 57 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 64 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 37 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 67 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 19 | 59 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 57 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 45 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 47 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 65 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 58 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 61 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 59 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 59 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 56 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 39 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 64 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 68 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 49 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 45 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 67 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 67 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 55 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 57 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 86 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 69 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 62 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 79 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 64 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 71 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 51 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 69 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 77 | +15.5 | Won | |
| 46 of 83· last season55%needs 55% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -19.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even |
| 3.4Good |
| Over 241.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 45% to break even | 0.6Slight |
| Over 240.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 45% to break even | 0.3Slight |
| Over 235.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even | -0.7Not beating its price |
| Over 245.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 36% to break even | -1.9Not beating its price |
| Over 233.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -151at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 60% to break even | -2.6Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 49% to break even | -2.8Not beating its price |
| Over 243.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 40% to break even | -3.5Not beating its price |
| Over 238.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -101at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 50% to break even | -3.9Not beating its price |
| Over 237.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 52% to break even | -4.8Not beating its price |
| Over 232.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | -172at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 63% to break even | -5.0Not beating its price |
| Over 124.5 team totalMiami Heat · Today 8:10 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 32 of 83· last season39%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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