This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 54% to break even | 44%–95% | 26 points betterwon 80%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 54% to break even | 35%–81% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 54% to break even | 39%–78% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 54% to break even | 27%–100% | 46 points betterwon 100%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 37 of 6954%needs 54% to break even | 44%–63% | evenwon 54%, needs 54% |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 threesKlay Thompson · Tomorrow 8:10 PM ET |
| Every game | 38 of 7054%needs 54% to break even | 45%–64% | 1 points betterwon 54%, needs 54% |
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 12 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 12 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| -121at Kalshi |
| 32 of 69· last season46%needs 55% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -30.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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