This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 62% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 62% to break even | 27%–86% | 2 points shortwon 60%, needs 62% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 62% to break even | 19%–65% | 22 points shortwon 40%, needs 62% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 62% to break even | 13%–48% | 35 points shortwon 27%, needs 62% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 62% to break even | 27%–100% | 38 points betterwon 100%, needs 62% |
| Last season | 24 of 6736%needs 62% to break even | 27%–46% | 26 points shortwon 36%, needs 62% |
| Every game | 25 of 6837%needs 62% to break even | 28%–47% | 25 points shortwon 37%, needs 62% |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Mar 23 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 6 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 12 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 threesBobby Portis · Today 8:10 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 43 of 67· last season64%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.