This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 41% to break even | 44%–95% | 39 points betterwon 80%, needs 41% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 41% to break even | 27%–73% | 9 points betterwon 50%, needs 41% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 41% to break even | 33%–72% | 13 points betterwon 53%, needs 41% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 41% to break even | 27%–100% | 59 points betterwon 100%, needs 41% |
| Last season | 22 of 6932%needs 41% to break even | 23%–42% | 9 points shortwon 32%, needs 41% |
| Every game | 23 of 7033%needs 41% to break even | 24%–43% | 8 points shortwon 33%, needs 41% |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rebounds in each game against under 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rebounds | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 8 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 8 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | 10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 31 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 8 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 8 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 8 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 9 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 9 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 9 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 9 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 reboundsAndrew Wiggins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 47 of 69· last season68%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 assistsAndrew Wiggins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 53 of 69· last season77%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 1.5 threesAndrew Wiggins · Today 8:10 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 44 of 69· last season64%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 threesAndrew Wiggins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 25 of 69· last season36%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 assistsAndrew Wiggins · Today 8:10 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 48% to break even | -30.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.