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Won43 of 83last season · 52%
Best price-105Polymarket
Price needs51.2%wins to break even
Every game43 of 84this season and last
Trend score-26.3Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 51% to break even | 14%–73% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 51% to break even | 19%–65% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 51% to break even | 17%–54% | 18 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 51% to break even | 0%–73% | 51 points shortwon 0%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 43 of 8352%needs 51% to break even | 43%–61% | 1 points betterwon 52%, needs 51% |
| Every game | 43 of 8451%needs 51% to break even | 42%–60% | evenwon 51%, needs 51% |
Games like tonight
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against DET. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
MIA to win (moneyline)15 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Polymarket-10551.2%BestBet ↗
Kalshi-10751.7%−$2Bet ↗
DraftKings-12555.6%−$15Bet ↗- tStheScore Bet-12555.6%−$15Bet ↗
Hard Rock-12555.6%−$15Bet ↗- PINPinnacle-12856.1%−$17Bet ↗
Fanatics-13056.5%−$18Bet ↗
Caesars-13056.5%−$18Bet ↗
BetRivers-13056.5%−$18Bet ↗
Bally Bet-13056.5%−$18Bet ↗- PRXbetPARX-13056.5%−$18Bet ↗
Bovada-13056.5%−$18Bet ↗- FLFliff-13056.5%−$18Bet ↗
- RBReBet-13357.1%−$20Bet ↗
FanDuel-13457.3%−$21Bet ↗
Every game behind it
Margin in each game against mia to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 |  MIN | -25 | -25 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 |  CHA | -1 | -1 | Lost |
| Apr 12 |  ATL | 26 | +26 | Won |
| Apr 10 |  WSH | 23 | +23 | Won |
| Apr 9 |  TOR | -14 | -14 | Lost |
| Apr 7 | TOR | -26 | -26 | Lost |
| Apr 4 | WSH | 16 | +16 | Won |
| Apr 1 |  BOS | -18 | -18 | Lost |
| Mar 30 |  PHI | 10 | +10 | Won |
| Mar 29 |  IND | -17 | -17 | Lost |
| Mar 27 |  CLE | -21 | -21 | Lost |
| Mar 25 | CLE | 17 | +17 | Won |
| Mar 23 |  SA | -25 | -25 | Lost |
| Mar 21 |  HOU | -1 | -1 | Lost |
| Mar 19 |  LAL | -8 | -8 | Lost |
| Mar 17 | CHA | -30 | -30 | Lost |
| Mar 14 |  ORL | -4 | -4 | Lost |
| Mar 12 |  MIL | 7 | +7 | Won |
| Mar 10 | WSH | 21 | +21 | Won |
| Mar 8 |  DET | 11 | +11 | Won |
| Mar 6 | CHA | 8 | +8 | Won |
| Mar 5 |  BKN | 16 | +16 | Won |
| Mar 3 | BKN | 26 | +26 | Won |
| Feb 28 | HOU | 10 | +10 | Won |
| Feb 26 | PHI | -7 | -7 | Lost |
| Feb 24 | MIL | -11 | -11 | Lost |
| Feb 21 |  MEM | 16 | +16 | Won |
| Feb 20 | ATL | 31 | +31 | Won |
| Feb 11 |  NO | 12 | +12 | Won |
| Feb 9 |  UTAH | -4 | -4 | Lost |
| Feb 8 | WSH | 31 | +31 | Won |
| Feb 6 | BOS | -2 | -2 | Lost |
| Feb 3 | ATL | -12 | -12 | Lost |
| Feb 1 |  CHI | 43 | +43 | Won |
| Jan 31 | CHI | -7 | -7 | Lost |
| Jan 29 | CHI | 3 | +3 | Won |
| Jan 28 | ORL | -9 | -9 | Lost |
| Jan 25 |  PHX | 9 | +9 | Won |
| Jan 24 | UTAH | 31 | +31 | Won |
| Jan 22 |  POR | -17 | -17 | Lost |
| Jan 20 |  SAC | 13 | +13 | Won |
| Jan 19 |  GS | -23 | -23 | Lost |
| Jan 17 |  OKC | 2 | +2 | Won |
| Jan 15 | BOS | -5 | -5 | Lost |
| Jan 13 | PHX | 6 | +6 | Won |
| Jan 11 | OKC | -12 | -12 | Lost |
| Jan 10 | IND | -24 | -24 | Lost |
| Jan 6 | MIN | -28 | -28 | Lost |
| Jan 4 | NO | 19 | +19 | Won |
| Jan 3 | MIN | -10 | -10 | Lost |
| Jan 1 | DET | 6 | +6 | Won |
| Dec 29 |  DEN | 24 | +24 | Won |
| Dec 27 | IND | 26 | +26 | Won |
| Dec 26 | ATL | 15 | +15 | Won |
| Dec 23 | TOR | -21 | -21 | Lost |
| Dec 21 |  NY | -7 | -7 | Lost |
| Dec 19 | BOS | -13 | -13 | Lost |
| Dec 18 | BKN | 11 | +11 | Won |
| Dec 15 | TOR | -10 | -10 | Lost |
| Dec 9 | ORL | -9 | -9 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | SAC | -16 | -16 | Lost |
| Dec 5 | ORL | -1 | -1 | Lost |
| Dec 3 |  DAL | -10 | -10 | Lost |
| Dec 1 |  LAC | 17 | +17 | Won |
| Nov 29 | DET | -3 | -3 | Lost |
| Nov 26 | MIL | 3 | +3 | Won |
| Nov 24 | DAL | 4 | +4 | Won |
| Nov 23 | PHI | 10 | +10 | Won |
| Nov 21 | CHI | 36 | +36 | Won |
| Nov 19 | GS | 14 | +14 | Won |
| Nov 17 | NY | 2 | +2 | Won |
| Nov 14 | NY | -8 | -8 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | CLE | -14 | -14 | Lost |
| Nov 10 | CLE | 2 | +2 | Won |
| Nov 8 | POR | 5 | +5 | Won |
| Nov 7 | CHA | 18 | +18 | Won |
| Nov 5 | DEN | -10 | -10 | Lost |
| Nov 3 | LAC | 1 | +1 | Won |
| Nov 2 | LAL | -10 | -10 | Lost |
| Oct 30 | SA | -6 | -6 | Lost |
| Oct 28 | CHA | 27 | +27 | Won |
| Oct 26 | NY | 8 | +8 | Won |
| Oct 24 | MEM | 32 | +32 | Won |
| Oct 22 | ORL | -4 | -4 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Miami Heat in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.