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NBAPlayer propPoints
Daniel Gafford under 9.5 points
Won33 of 55last season · 60%
Best price-131Kalshi
Price needs56.7%wins to break even
Every game34 of 56this season and last
Trend score-21.1Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 57% to break even | 44%–95% | 23 points betterwon 80%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 57% to break even | 27%–73% | 7 points shortwon 50%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 57% to break even | 22%–61% | 17 points shortwon 40%, needs 57% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 57% to break even | 27%–100% | 43 points betterwon 100%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 33 of 5560%needs 57% to break even | 49%–70% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Every game | 34 of 5661%needs 57% to break even | 50%–71% | 4 points betterwon 61%, needs 57% |
Games like tonight
Tonight DAL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Daniel Gafford under 9.5 points1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Points in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 |  HOU | 2 | +7.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 5 |  LAL | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Apr 3 |  ORL | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 31 |  MIL | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 30 |  MIN | 21 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Mar 23 |  GS | 20 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Mar 21 |  LAC | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 18 |  ATL | 24 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Mar 12 |  MEM | 22 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Mar 10 | ATL | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 |  TOR | 21 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Mar 5 | ORL | 12 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 3 |  CHA | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 1 |  OKC | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 27 | MEM | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Feb 24 |  BKN | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 22 |  IND | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 20 | MIN | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 12 | LAL | 2 | +7.5 | Won |
| Feb 10 |  PHX | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| Feb 7 |  SA | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 5 | SA | 16 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Feb 3 |  BOS | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 31 | HOU | 16 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Jan 29 | CHA | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Jan 28 | MIN | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Jan 24 | LAL | 2 | +7.5 | Won |
| Jan 14 |  DEN | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jan 10 |  CHI | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jan 8 |  UTAH | 0 | +9.5 | Won |
| Jan 6 |  SAC | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 3 | HOU | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 1 |  PHI | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 29 |  POR | 17 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | SAC | 11 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 25 | GS | 6 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 23 | DEN | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| Dec 22 |  NO | 3 | +6.5 | Won |
| Dec 20 | PHI | 2 | +7.5 | Won |
| Dec 18 |  DET | 9 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 15 | UTAH | 2 | +7.5 | Won |
| Dec 3 |  MIA | 2 | +7.5 | Won |
| Nov 28 | LAL | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 24 | MIA | 11 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | MEM | 5 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 21 | NO | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 19 |  NY | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | POR | 20 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 14 | LAC | 10 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | PHX | 15 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 10 | MIL | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 |  WSH | 8 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 7 | MEM | 0 | +9.5 | Won |
| Nov 5 | NO | 15 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 3 | HOU | 14 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | DET | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 pointsDaniel Gafford · Today 7:10 PM ET |  -107at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 52% to break even | -22.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.