This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 51% to break even | 5%–56% | 31 points shortwon 20%, needs 51% | 1.8threes |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 51% to break even | 7%–46% | 31 points shortwon 20%, needs 51% | 2.1threes |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 51% to break even | 22%–61% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 2.3threes |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 51% to break even | 0%–73% | 51 points shortwon 0%, needs 51% | 2threes |
| Last season | 15 of 3839%needs 51% to break even | 28%–53% | 11 points shortwon 39%, needs 51% | 2.3threes |
| Every game | 15 of 3938%needs 51% to break even | 27%–52% | 12 points shortwon 38%, needs 51% | 2.3threes |
Tonight PHX plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against GS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 9 of 21 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 27 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 8 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 8 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 5 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 6 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 threesJalen Green · Today 10:10 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even12 of 21 at home | -6.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.