This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 53% to break even | 0%–35% | 53 points shortwon 0%, needs 53% | 26.4points and rebounds |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 53% to break even | 7%–46% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% | 24.5points and rebounds |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 53% to break even | 17%–54% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 21.7points and rebounds |
| This season | 0 of 20%needs 53% to break even | 0%–58% | 53 points shortwon 0%, needs 53% | 29.5points and rebounds |
| Last season | 31 of 7641%needs 53% to break even | 32%–50% | 12 points shortwon 41%, needs 53% | 20.3points and rebounds |
| Every game | 31 of 7840%needs 53% to break even | 31%–49% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 20.6points and rebounds |
Tonight MIL plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, on a back-to-back, against PHI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 17 of 41 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + reb in each game against under 18.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + reb | Beat 18.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 23 | 30 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 29 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 14 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 27 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 27 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 35 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 27 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 20 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 25 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 16 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 10 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 7 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 10 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 25 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 25 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 25 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 15 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 31 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 13 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | 8 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Feb 6 | 18 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 29 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 1 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 26 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 29 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 25 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 16 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 9 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 15 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 20 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 5 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 9 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 34 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 21 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 9 | 13 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 33 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 8 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 17 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 32 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 35 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 26 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 26 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 12 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 39 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 32 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 22 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 27 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 19 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 17.5 pts + rebJaime Jaquez Jr · Today 7:40 PM ET | -145at Bovada | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 59% to break even25 of 41 on the road | -6.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 18.5 pts + rebJaime Jaquez Jr · Today 7:40 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even24 of 41 on the road | -0.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 19.5 pts + rebJaime Jaquez Jr · Today 7:40 PM ET | +112at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 47% to break even21 of 41 on the road | -4.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.