This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 57% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 57% to break even | 28%–67% | 10 points shortwon 47%, needs 57% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 57% to break even | 0%–73% | 57 points shortwon 0%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 34 of 6552%needs 57% to break even | 42%–62% | 4 points shortwon 52%, needs 57% |
| Every game | 34 of 6652%needs 57% to break even | 42%–61% | 5 points shortwon 52%, needs 57% |
Tonight LAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against LAC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rebounds in each game against under 7.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rebounds | Beat 7.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 8 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 2 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 8 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 7 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 7 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 10 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 8 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 10 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 8 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 20 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 15 | STARS | 0 | +7.5 | Won |
| Feb 5 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 15 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 7 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 8 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 13 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 2 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | 7 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 9 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 10 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 2 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 3 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 10 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 15 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 25 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 7 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 7 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 9 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 21 | 12 | -4.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 reboundsLuka Dončić · Today 10:10 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 31 of 65· last season48%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.