This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 65% to break even | 27%–86% | 5 points shortwon 60%, needs 65% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 65% to break even | 44%–87% | 5 points betterwon 70%, needs 65% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 65% to break even | 39%–78% | 5 points shortwon 60%, needs 65% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 65% to break even | 27%–100% | 35 points betterwon 100%, needs 65% |
| Last season | 27 of 5351%needs 65% to break even | 40%–62% | 14 points shortwon 51%, needs 65% |
| Every game |
Tonight TOR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against WSH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 pointsJakob Poeltl · Today 7:10 PM ET |
| 41%–63% |
| 13 points shortwon 52%, needs 65% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 3 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 1 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 0 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 23 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 21 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 18 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 25 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 19 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 9 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 26 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 19 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 22 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 13 | 20 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 2 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| +129at Kalshi |
| 26 of 53· last season49%needs 44% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -20.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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