This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 67% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 67% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points shortwon 60%, needs 67% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 67% to break even | 44%–87% | 3 points betterwon 70%, needs 67% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 67% to break even | 52%–87% | 7 points betterwon 73%, needs 67% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 67% to break even | 0%–73% | 67 points shortwon 0%, needs 67% |
| Last season | 32 of 4276%needs 67% to break even | 64%–85% | 10 points betterwon 76%, needs 67% |
| Every game | 32 of 4374%needs 67% to break even | 62%–84% | 8 points betterwon 74%, needs 67% |
Tonight MIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ORL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 3 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 27 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 23 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 12 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 30 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 threesJonathan Kuminga · Today 7:10 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 10 of 42· last season24%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 reboundsJonathan Kuminga · Today 7:10 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 59% to break even | 2.3Slight | ||
| Under 1.5 assistsJonathan Kuminga · Today 7:10 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 39% to break even | -3.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 5.5 reboundsJonathan Kuminga · Today 7:10 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 17 of 42· last season40%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -34.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.