This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 41% to break even | 14%–73% | 1 points shortwon 40%, needs 41% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 41% to break even | 19%–65% | 1 points shortwon 40%, needs 41% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 41% to break even | 17%–54% | 7 points shortwon 33%, needs 41% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 41% to break even | 0%–73% | 41 points shortwon 0%, needs 41% |
| Last season | 31 of 8138%needs 41% to break even | 30%–47% | 2 points shortwon 38%, needs 41% |
| Every game |
Tonight ORL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 pointsPaolo Banchero · Today 7:10 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 assistsPaolo Banchero · |
| 30%–47% |
| 3 points shortwon 38%, needs 41% |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 35 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 3 | 38 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| May 1 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 45 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 17 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 10 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 11 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 9 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | 30 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 24 | 36 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 23 | 39 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 32 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 33 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 37 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 24 | 36 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 26 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 30 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 9 | 11 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 19 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 37 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 26 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 30 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 31 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 12 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 12 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 26 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 9 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 4 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Nov 10 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 32 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 11 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| -199at Kalshi |
| 50 of 81· last season62%needs 67% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -24.2Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 pointsPaolo Banchero · Today 7:10 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 31 of 81· last season38%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +112at Polymarket |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 47% to break even |
| -1.8Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 threesPaolo Banchero · Today 7:10 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 44% to break even | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 pts + reb + astPaolo Banchero · Today 7:10 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 48 of 81· last season59%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Under 34.5 pts + reb + astPaolo Banchero · Today 7:10 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 33 of 81· last season41%needs 46% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 threesPaolo Banchero · Today 7:10 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 54 of 81· last season67%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.7Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 assistsPaolo Banchero · Today 7:10 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 42 of 81· last season52%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -37.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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