This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 45% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 45% to break even | 14%–73% | 5 points shortwon 40%, needs 45% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 45% to break even | 27%–73% | 5 points betterwon 50%, needs 45% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 45% to break even | 39%–78% | 15 points betterwon 60%, needs 45% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 45% to break even | 27%–100% | 55 points betterwon 100%, needs 45% |
| Last season | 45 of 7957%needs 45% to break even | 48%–66% | 12 points betterwon 57%, needs 45% |
| Every game | 46 of 8057%needs 45% to break even | 48%–66% | 12 points betterwon 57%, needs 45% |
Tonight MIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against ORL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 16 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 15 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 12 | 16 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 8 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 6 | 0 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 43 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 25 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 10 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 7 | 24 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Apr 5 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 19 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 19 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 30 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 23 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 19 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Mar 13 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 13 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 3 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 13 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 21 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 29 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 23 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 19 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 20 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 8 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 19 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 20 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 24 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 16 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 2 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 8 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 6 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 13 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 8 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 4 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 16 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 28 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 8 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 23 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 21 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 18 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 20 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 22 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 21 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.