This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 34% to break even | 5%–56% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 34% to break even | 7%–46% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 34% to break even | 5%–33% | 20 points shortwon 13%, needs 34% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 34% to break even | 0%–73% | 34 points shortwon 0%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 10 of 7414%needs 34% to break even | 8%–21% | 20 points shortwon 14%, needs 34% |
| Every game |
Tonight MIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ORL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Assists in each game against over 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 assistsLaMelo Ball · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 pointsLaMelo Ball · |
| 8%–21% |
| 20 points shortwon 13%, needs 34% |
| Date | Opponent | Assists | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 17 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 3 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 28 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 24 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 19 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 4 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 28 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 26 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 5 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 10 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| +114at Kalshi |
| 40 of 74· last season54%needs 47% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -103at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 51% to break even |
| -9.2Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 threesLaMelo Ball · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 52% to break even | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 threesLaMelo Ball · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 35 of 74· last season47%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.5Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 pointsLaMelo Ball · Tomorrow 7:10 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 37 of 74· last season50%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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