This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 43% to break even | 19%–65% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 43% to break even | 17%–54% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 43% to break even | 0%–73% | 43 points shortwon 0%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 14 of 4829%needs 43% to break even | 20%–41% | 13 points shortwon 29%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 14 of 4929%needs 43% to break even | 19%–40% | 14 points shortwon 29%, needs 43% |
Tonight UTAH plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Steals in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Steals | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Feb 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 6 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 21 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 17 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.