This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 71% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 71% to break even | 27%–86% | 11 points shortwon 60%, needs 71% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 71% to break even | 44%–87% | 1 points shortwon 70%, needs 71% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 71% to break even | 59%–92% | 9 points betterwon 80%, needs 71% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 71% to break even | 27%–100% | 29 points betterwon 100%, needs 71% |
| Last season | 45 of 5483%needs 71% to break even | 73%–90% | 13 points betterwon 83%, needs 71% |
| Every game | 46 of 5584%needs 71% to break even | 74%–90% | 13 points betterwon 84%, needs 71% |
Tonight UTAH plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 16.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 16.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 22 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Mar 11 | 14 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 9 | 15 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 22 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Mar 4 | 30 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 36 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 17 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 5 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 26 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Jan 28 | 19 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 19 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 22 | 23 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 43 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Jan 19 | 30 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 29 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 17 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 25 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | 32 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 4 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 19 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 25 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Jan 5 | 15 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 22 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Dec 30 | 37 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 28 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 31 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 24 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 20 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | 27 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 18 | 34 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 37 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Dec 12 | 39 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 8 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 4 | 29 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 28 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 0 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 31 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 28 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 27 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 21 | 20 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 18 | 34 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 33 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Nov 13 | 19 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 11 | 10 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 27 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Nov 7 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 19 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 31 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 25 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 17 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 29 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 26 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Oct 24 | 18 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 22 | 16 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.