This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 45% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 45% to break even | 27%–86% | 15 points betterwon 60%, needs 45% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 45% to break even | 27%–73% | 5 points betterwon 50%, needs 45% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 45% to break even | 33%–72% | 8 points betterwon 53%, needs 45% |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 45% to break even | 0%–73% | 45 points shortwon 0%, needs 45% |
| Last season | 8 of 1457%needs 45% to break even | 36%–76% | 12 points betterwon 57%, needs 45% |
| Every game | 8 of 1553%needs 45% to break even | 33%–72% | 8 points betterwon 53%, needs 45% |
Tonight NO plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against UTAH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pts + ast in each game against under 22.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pts + ast | Beat 22.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 30 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 2 | 14 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 25 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 16 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 19 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 28 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 39 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 33 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 21 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 20 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 3 | 23 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 22 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 26 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 24 | 16 | +6.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 22.5 pts + astDejounte Murray · Today 9:40 PM ET | -160at Bovada | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 62% to break even | -28.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 23.5 pts + astDejounte Murray · Today 9:40 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even | -23.9Not beating its price | ||
| Over 24.5 pts + astDejounte Murray · Today 9:40 PM ET | +100at Bovada | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 50% to break even | -21.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.