This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 60% to break even | 44%–95% | 20 points betterwon 80%, needs 60% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 60% to break even | 35%–81% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 60% to break even | 28%–67% | 13 points shortwon 47%, needs 60% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 60% to break even | 27%–100% | 40 points betterwon 100%, needs 60% |
| Last season | 27 of 6641%needs 60% to break even | 32%–51% | 19 points shortwon 41%, needs 60% |
| Every game |
Tonight NO plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against UTAH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Assists in each game against under 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 assistsTrey Murphy III · Today 9:40 PM ET |
| 28 of 6742%needs 60% to break even |
| 32%–52% |
| 18 points shortwon 42%, needs 60% |
| Date | Opponent | Assists | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 3 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 2 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 21 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 11 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 6 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 27 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 9 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 14 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 6 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 26 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 22 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 8 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 8 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 24 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 19 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 17 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 14 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 12 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 10 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 5 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 31 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 5 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 22 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| +105at Kalshi |
| 39 of 66· last season59%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -19.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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