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NBAPlayer propThrees
Matas Buzelis under 1.5 threes
Won4 of 5last 5 games · 80%
Best price+134Kalshi
Price needs42.7%wins to break even
Every game22 of 78this season and last
Trend score-16.3Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 43% to break even | 44%–95% | 37 points betterwon 80%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 43% to break even | 27%–73% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 43% to break even | 17%–54% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 43% to break even | 27%–100% | 57 points betterwon 100%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 21 of 7727%needs 43% to break even | 20%–36% | 15 points shortwon 27%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 22 of 7828%needs 43% to break even | 21%–37% | 15 points shortwon 28%, needs 43% |
Games like tonight
Tonight CHI plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Matas Buzelis under 1.5 threes1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Threes in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 21 |  TOR | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 10 |  ORL | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 3 |  NY | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 1 |  IND | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 30 |  SA | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 28 |  MEM | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 27 |  OKC | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 25 |  PHI | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 23 |  HOU | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Mar 19 |  CLE | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 18 | TOR | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 16 | MEM | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Mar 13 |  LAC | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 12 |  LAL | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 10 |  GS | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 |  SAC | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 3 | OKC | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 1 |  MIL | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 26 |  POR | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 24 |  CHA | 6 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Feb 22 | NY | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 21 |  DET | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 19 | TOR | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 |  BOS | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 9 |  BKN | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 7 |  DEN | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Feb 5 | TOR | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 3 | MIL | 5 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Feb 1 |  MIA | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 31 | MIA | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 29 | MIA | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 28 | IND | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 26 | LAL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 24 | BOS | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 22 |  MIN | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 20 | LAC | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 18 | BKN | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 16 | BKN | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 14 |  UTAH | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 13 | HOU | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 10 |  DAL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 7 | DET | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 5 | BOS | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 3 | CHA | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jan 2 | ORL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 31 |  NO | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 29 | MIN | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | MIL | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 26 | PHI | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 23 |  ATL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | ATL | 7 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Dec 19 | CLE | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 17 | CLE | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | NO | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 12 | CHA | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | GS | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 5 | IND | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 3 | BKN | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 1 | ORL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | IND | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 28 | CHA | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 24 | NO | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 |  WSH | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 21 | MIA | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 19 | POR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 17 | DEN | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | UTAH | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | DET | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 10 | SA | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | CLE | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 7 | MIL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 4 | PHI | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | NY | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 31 | NY | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 29 | SAC | 4 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 27 | ATL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | ORL | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 22 | DET | 0 | +1.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 threesMatas Buzelis · Tomorrow 4:10 PM ETWithout Claxton |  -175at Kalshi | 56 of 77· last season73%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.