This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 23% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 23% to break even | 0%–35% | 23 points shortwon 0%, needs 23% | 0.8threes |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 23% to break even | 2%–35% | 13 points shortwon 10%, needs 23% | 1.2threes |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 157%needs 23% to break even | 2%–25% | 17 points shortwon 7%, needs 23% | 1.1threes |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 23% to break even | 0%–73% | 23 points shortwon 0%, needs 23% | 1threes |
| Last season | 4 of 508% |
Tonight DEN plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 0 of 7 without Johnson · 3 of 26 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Threes in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 4%–17% |
| 15 points shortwon 8%, needs 23% |
| 1threes |
| Every game | 4 of 518%needs 23% to break even | 4%–16% | 15 points shortwon 8%, needs 23% | 1threes |
| Date | Opponent | Threes | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 23 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 8 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 25 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 24 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 18 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 11 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 11 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 4 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 9 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| -104at FanDuel |
| 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 51% to break even6 of 7 without Johnson · 19 of 26 at home |
| 10.2Strong |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -108at FanDuel |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even6 of 7 without Johnson · 13 of 26 at home |
| -1.6Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 pts + rebChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -113at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even6 of 7 without Johnson · 11 of 26 at home | -2.2Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 pts + reb + astChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -115at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 without Johnson · 11 of 26 at home | -3.0Not beating its price |
| Gets a double-doubleChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +2200at Fanatics | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 4% to break even0 of 7 without Johnson · 0 of 26 at home | -4.0Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 pts + astChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -110at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even5 of 7 without Johnson · 10 of 26 at home | -4.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 assistsChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +129at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 44% to break even2 of 7 without Johnson · 7 of 26 at home | -4.7Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 reboundsChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +152at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 40% to break even2 of 7 without Johnson · 7 of 26 at home | -8.9Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 reboundsChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -105at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 51% to break even3 of 7 without Johnson · 12 of 26 at home | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 reboundsChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +176at FanDuel | 18 of 50· last season36%needs 36% to break even2 of 7 without Johnson · 10 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 assistsChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +174at DraftKings | 22 of 50· last season44%needs 36% to break even3 of 7 without Johnson · 14 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 reb + astChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -106at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even3 of 7 without Johnson · 7 of 26 at home | -17.4Not beating its price |
| Over 8.5 reb + astChristian Braun · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +189at BetOnline | 17 of 50· last season34%needs 35% to break even3 of 7 without Johnson · 9 of 26 at home | Record is last season's | -22.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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