This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 36% to break even | 5%–56% | 16 points shortwon 20%, needs 36% | 17.6points |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 36% to break even | 13%–56% | 6 points shortwon 30%, needs 36% | 20.9points |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 36% to break even | 22%–61% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% | 24.7points |
| This season | 0 of 10%needs 36% to break even | 0%–73% | 36 points shortwon 0%, needs 36% | 6points |
| Last season | 30 of 8336% |
Tonight DEN plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 10 of 24 without Johnson · 14 of 40 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Points in each game against over 27.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 28%–45% |
| evenwon 36%, needs 36% |
| 24.8points |
| Every game | 30 of 8436%needs 36% to break even | 28%–45% | 1 points shortwon 36%, needs 36% | 24.5points |
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 27.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 6 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | 12 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 30 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 23 | 16 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 30 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 30 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 8 | 26 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 20 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 15 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 37 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Mar 29 | 20 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 27 | 31 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 25 | 53 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 22 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 20 | 31 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 19 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 17 | 12 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 5 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 39 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Mar 11 | 30 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 12 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 28 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 45 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 25 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 27 | 39 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 2 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 20 | 25 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 19 | 20 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 15 | STRIPES | 8 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Feb 15 | STARS | 0 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Feb 11 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 17 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 7 | 28 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 4 | 39 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Feb 3 | 32 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 12 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 30 | 20 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 29 | 27 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 20 | 28 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 16 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 17 | 42 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Jan 14 | 33 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 35 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 22 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 27 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 34 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 21 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 20 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 25 | 35 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 31 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 27 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 16 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 32 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Dec 15 | 35 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 11 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 34 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 3 | 52 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 10 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 37 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 29 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 26 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 19 | 16 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 17 | 34 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 15 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 7 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 5 | 14 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 15 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 31 | 22 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 17 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 43 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 23 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 25 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| -106at FanDuel |
| 40 of 83· last season48%needs 51% to break even9 of 24 without Johnson · 20 of 40 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -20.1Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 pointsJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -148at Kalshi | 45 of 83· last season54%needs 60% to break even12 of 24 without Johnson · 22 of 40 at home | Record is last season's | -20.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -151at DraftKings |
| 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 60% to break even12 of 24 without Johnson · 29 of 40 at home |
| 3.1Good |
| Gets a triple-doubleJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +4500at FanDuel | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 2% to break even0 of 24 without Johnson · 0 of 40 at home | -2.1Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 reboundsJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +218at Kalshi | 30 of 83· last season36%needs 31% to break even6 of 24 without Johnson · 13 of 40 at home | Record is last season's | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 reboundsJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +109at BetOnline | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 48% to break even10 of 24 without Johnson · 18 of 40 at home | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 reboundsJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -175at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 64% to break even14 of 24 without Johnson · 27 of 40 at home | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 threesJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -182at FanDuel | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 65% to break even15 of 24 without Johnson · 25 of 40 at home | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 threesJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +132at Caesars | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 43% to break even13 of 24 without Johnson · 17 of 40 at home | -11.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 threesJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +325at BetMGM | 22 of 83· last season27%needs 24% to break even6 of 24 without Johnson · 12 of 40 at home | Record is last season's | -11.2Not beating its price |
| Under 31.5 pts + astJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -120at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 55% to break even9 of 24 without Johnson · 22 of 40 at home | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 assistsJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +110at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 48% to break even10 of 24 without Johnson · 18 of 40 at home | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 assistsJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +129at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 44% to break even6 of 24 without Johnson · 14 of 40 at home | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 pts + reb + astJamal Murray · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +200at BetMGM | 31 of 83· last season37%needs 33% to break even12 of 24 without Johnson · 11 of 40 at home | Record is last season's | -14.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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