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NBAPlayer propPoints
DeMar DeRozan under 14.5 points
Won7 of 10last 10 games · 70%
Best price+114Kalshi
Price needs46.7%wins to break even
Every game29 of 78this season and last
Trend score-11.8Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 47% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 47% to break even | 27%–86% | 13 points betterwon 60%, needs 47% | 17.2points |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 47% to break even | 44%–87% | 23 points betterwon 70%, needs 47% | 15.1points |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 47% to break even | 33%–72% | 7 points betterwon 53%, needs 47% | 19points |
| This season | 1 of 1100%needs 47% to break even | 27%–100% | 53 points betterwon 100%, needs 47% | 13points |
| Last season | 28 of 7736%needs 47% to break even | 28%–46% | 10 points shortwon 36%, needs 47% | 18.4points |
| Every game | 29 of 7837%needs 47% to break even | 29%–46% | 10 points shortwon 37%, needs 47% | 18.4points |
Games like tonight
Tonight DEN plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 17 of 39 at home.
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
DeMar DeRozan under 14.5 points4 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Points in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Points | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 |  OKC | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 5 |  LAC | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Apr 3 |  NO | 14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 1 |  TOR | 28 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Mar 28 |  ATL | 22 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Mar 26 |  ORL | 33 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Mar 24 |  CHA | 7 | +7.5 | Won |
| Mar 22 |  BKN | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Mar 19 |  PHI | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 17 |  SA | 2 | +12.5 | Won |
| Mar 15 |  UTAH | 41 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Mar 14 | LAC | 27 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Mar 11 | CHA | 39 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Mar 10 |  IND | 12 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 5 | NO | 15 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Mar 3 |  PHX | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 1 |  LAL | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Feb 26 |  DAL | 7 | +7.5 | Won |
| Feb 25 |  HOU | 15 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 23 |  MEM | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Feb 21 | SA | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Feb 19 | ORL | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 11 | UTAH | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Feb 9 | NO | 8 | +6.5 | Won |
| Feb 7 |  CLE | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 6 | LAC | 5 | +9.5 | Won |
| Feb 4 | MEM | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Feb 1 |  WSH | 32 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Jan 30 |  BOS | 6 | +8.5 | Won |
| Jan 29 | PHI | 25 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Jan 27 |  NY | 34 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Jan 25 |  DET | 16 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 23 | CLE | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Jan 21 | TOR | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Jan 20 |  MIA | 23 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Jan 18 |  POR | 14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 16 | WSH | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jan 14 | NY | 27 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Jan 12 | LAL | 32 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Jan 11 | HOU | 22 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Jan 9 |  GS | 24 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Jan 6 | DAL | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Jan 4 |  MIL | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Jan 2 | PHX | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 1 | BOS | 25 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Dec 30 | LAC | 8 | +6.5 | Won |
| Dec 28 | LAL | 22 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | DAL | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Dec 23 | DET | 37 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | HOU | 27 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Dec 20 | POR | 15 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 18 | POR | 33 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 |  MIN | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Dec 11 |  DEN | 11 | +3.5 | Won |
| Dec 8 | IND | 20 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | MIA | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 3 | HOU | 12 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | MEM | 23 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Nov 28 | UTAH | 16 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 26 | PHX | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 24 | MIN | 33 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | DEN | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 20 | MEM | 7 | +7.5 | Won |
| Nov 19 | OKC | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | SA | 27 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Nov 14 | MIN | 6 | +8.5 | Won |
| Nov 12 | ATL | 4 | +10.5 | Won |
| Nov 11 | DEN | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | MIN | 22 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 7 | OKC | 18 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 5 | GS | 25 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 3 | DEN | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | MIL | 29 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Oct 29 |  CHI | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 28 | OKC | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | LAL | 21 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Oct 24 | UTAH | 7 | +7.5 | Won |
| Oct 22 | PHX | 29 | -14.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 13.5 pointsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson |  -175at Fanatics | 51 of 77· last season66%needs 64% to break even24 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -28.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 pointsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson |  -120at BetMGM | 49 of 77· last season64%needs 55% to break even22 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -25.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 15.5 pointsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +100at Fanatics | 46 of 77· last season60%needs 50% to break even20 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -23.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 16.5 pointsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +125at Fanatics | 44 of 77· last season57%needs 44% to break even20 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -19.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 17.5 pointsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson |  +158at DraftKings | 39 of 77· last season51%needs 39% to break even18 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -15.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 18.5 pointsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson |  +200at Caesars | 37 of 77· last season48%needs 33% to break even16 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -10.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 20.5 pointsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +325at Caesars | 28 of 77· last season36%needs 24% to break even15 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -3.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on DeMar DeRozan in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 assistsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +300at BetMGM | 34 of 77· last season44%needs 25% to break even18 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | 1.5Slight | |
| Gets a double-doubleDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson |  +4000at FanDuel | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 2% to break even1 of 39 at home | -0.2Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 assistsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson |  +166at Kalshi | 41 of 77· last season53%needs 38% to break even21 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -2.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 6.5 reb + astDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +145at BetMGM | 43 of 77· last season56%needs 41% to break even21 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -5.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 pts + reb + astDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +210at BetMGM | 38 of 77· last season49%needs 32% to break even17 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -9.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 reboundsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +102at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even18 of 39 at home | -12.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 17.5 pts + rebDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -102at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 50% to break even18 of 39 at home | -13.2Not beating its price | ||
| Over 3.5 reboundsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +218at Kalshi | 29 of 77· last season38%needs 31% to break even12 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -14.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 27.5 pts + reb + astDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson |  +176at BetOnline | 31 of 77· last season40%needs 36% to break even15 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 assistsDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -169at DraftKings | 57 of 77· last season74%needs 63% to break even26 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 pts + rebDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | +140at BetMGM | 42 of 77· last season55%needs 42% to break even18 of 39 at home | Record is last season's | -17.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 21.5 pts + reb + astDeMar DeRozan · Today 9:10 PM ETWithout Johnson | -123at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 55% to break even19 of 39 at home | -17.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.