This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 64% to break even | 5%–56% | 44 points shortwon 20%, needs 64% | 2goals |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 64% to break even | 7%–46% | 44 points shortwon 20%, needs 64% | 2.5goals |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 64% to break even | 28%–67% | 17 points shortwon 47%, needs 64% | 1.9goals |
| This season | 16 of 3053%needs 64% to break even | 39%–67% | 10 points shortwon 53%, needs 64% | 1.6goals |
| Last season | 19 of 3850%needs 64% to break even | 37%–63% | 14 points shortwon 50%, needs 64% | 1.6goals |
| Every game | 35 of 6851%needs 64% to break even | 42%–61% | 12 points shortwon 51%, needs 64% | 1.6goals |
Tonight MIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 16 of 34 on the road.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
MIN goals in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | MIN goals | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 25 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 24 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 26 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 16 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jul 12 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 25 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 1 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 28 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 14 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 19 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 team totalMinnesota United FC · Today 8:30 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 42% to break even18 of 34 on the road | -1.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.