This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 72% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 72% to break even | 27%–86% | 12 points shortwon 60%, needs 72% | won by 1.4goals |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 72% to break even | 19%–65% | 32 points shortwon 40%, needs 72% | won by 1.2goals |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 72% to break even | 22%–61% | 32 points shortwon 40%, needs 72% | won by 0.7goals |
| This season | 15 of 3050%needs 72% to break even | 36%–64% | 22 points shortwon 50%, needs 72% | won by 0.7goals |
| Last season | 24 of 4060%needs 72% to break even | 47%–72% | 12 points shortwon 60%, needs 72% | won by 1goals |
| Every game | 39 of 7056%needs 72% to break even | 46%–65% | 17 points shortwon 56%, needs 72% | won by 0.9goals |
Tonight MIA plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against CIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 21 of 36 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against MIA to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 14 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 6 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 15 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 30 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 24 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 16 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 10 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jul 16 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 5 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| May 31 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 18 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 27 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 game total, MIA gamesInter Miami CF · Wed, Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET | PRX-124at betPARX | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 55% to break even24 of 36 at home | 1.2Slight | ||
| Draw, MIA gamesInter Miami CF · Wed, Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET | +490at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 17% to break even10 of 36 at home | -0.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 4.5 game total, MIA gamesInter Miami CF · Wed, Oct 28, 7:30 PM ET | PRX-105at betPARX | 16 of 40· last season40%needs 51% to break even12 of 36 at home | Record is last season's | -35.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.