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MLBPlayer propHits allowed
Drew Rasmussen over 4.5 hits allowed
Won12 of 34this season · 35%
Best price+109Kalshi
Price needs47.8%wins to break even
Every game19 of 66this season and last
Trend score-32.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 48% to break even | 5%–56% | 28 points shortwon 20%, needs 48% | 3.6hits allowed |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 48% to break even | 13%–56% | 18 points shortwon 30%, needs 48% | 4.3hits allowed |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 48% to break even | 13%–48% | 21 points shortwon 27%, needs 48% | 4.1hits allowed |
| This season | 12 of 3435%needs 48% to break even | 23%–49% | 13 points shortwon 35%, needs 48% | 4.1hits allowed |
| Last season | 7 of 3222%needs 48% to break even | 12%–36% | 26 points shortwon 22%, needs 48% | 3.6hits allowed |
| Every game | 19 of 6629%needs 48% to break even | 21%–39% | 19 points shortwon 29%, needs 48% | 3.8hits allowed |
Games like tonight
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 29 on the road.
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Drew Rasmussen over 4.5 hits allowed1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Hits allowed in each game against over 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Hits allowed | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 |  CLE | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | CLE | 8 | +3.5 | Won |
| Oct 3 |  NYY | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 22 | NYY | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 17 |  ATH | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 11 |  HOU | 8 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 |  TEX | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Aug 30 |  SD | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Aug 24 |  DET | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Aug 19 |  TOR | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Aug 12 | ATH | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Aug 7 |  SEA | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Aug 1 |  CHW | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jul 26 | CLE | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Jul 21 | TOR | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jul 14 | NL | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Jul 9 | NYY | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jul 4 | HOU | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jun 28 |  ARI | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jun 22 |  KC | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jun 16 |  LAD | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jun 10 |  BOS | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jun 5 |  MIA | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| May 30 |  LAA | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 24 | NYY | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 17 | MIA | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| May 11 | TOR | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 5 | TOR | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Apr 29 | CLE | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 24 |  MIN | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 18 |  PIT | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Apr 12 | NYY | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Apr 1 |  MIL | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 26 |  STL | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 25 |  BAL | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | BOS | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 |  CHC | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | CLE | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 2 | SEA | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Aug 27 | CLE | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Aug 20 | NYY | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 13 | ATH | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Aug 8 | SEA | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Aug 2 | LAD | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jul 28 | NYY | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jul 22 | CHW | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jul 15 | NL | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Jul 11 | BOS | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jul 6 | MIN | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jun 30 | ATH | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jun 25 | KC | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Jun 19 | BAL | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Jun 14 |  NYM | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jun 8 | MIA | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jun 3 | TEX | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| May 28 | MIN | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| May 23 | TOR | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 17 | MIA | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 11 | MIL | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| May 6 |  PHI | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 30 | KC | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Apr 24 | ARI | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 18 | NYY | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 12 |  ATL | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Apr 6 | TEX | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 31 | PIT | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 hits allowedDrew Rasmussen · Today 8:00 PM ET |  -148at Kalshi | 25 of 32· last season78%needs 60% to break even22 of 29 on the road | Record is last season's | -8.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Drew Rasmussen in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.