This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 58% to break even | 5%–56% | 38 points shortwon 20%, needs 58% | 0.8earned runs |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 58% to break even | 13%–56% | 28 points shortwon 30%, needs 58% | 1.4earned runs |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 58% to break even | 17%–54% | 24 points shortwon 33%, needs 58% | 1.2earned runs |
| This season | 14 of 3441%needs 58% to break even | 28%–55% | 17 points shortwon 41%, needs 58% | 1.6earned runs |
| Last season | 15 of 3247% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 11 of 29 on the road.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Earned runs in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33%–61% |
| 11 points shortwon 47%, needs 58% |
| 1.4earned runs |
| Every game | 29 of 6644%needs 58% to break even | 34%–54% | 14 points shortwon 44%, needs 58% | 1.5earned runs |
| Date | Opponent | Earned runs | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 12 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 21 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 14 | NL | 0 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jul 9 | 6 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Jul 4 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jun 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 10 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 30 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 24 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 5 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 29 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Sep 25 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 2 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 27 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 22 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jul 15 | NL | 0 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jul 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 30 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 25 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 14 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jun 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jun 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 23 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 6 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 30 | 3 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 24 | 4 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| +101at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 50% to break even18 of 29 on the road |
| -5.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -142at Kalshi |
| 25 of 32· last season78%needs 59% to break even22 of 29 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.1Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 outs recordedDrew Rasmussen · Today 8:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 56% to break even13 of 29 on the road | -11.2Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Drew Rasmussen · Today 8:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 27 of 32· last season84%needs 48% to break even19 of 29 on the road | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Drew Rasmussen · Today 8:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 29 of 32· last season91%needs 62% to break even23 of 29 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Drew Rasmussen · Today 8:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 43% to break even6 of 29 on the road | -21.0Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 strikeouts (pitcher)Drew Rasmussen · Today 8:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 57% to break even10 of 29 on the road | -22.4Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 outs recordedDrew Rasmussen · Today 8:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 23 of 32· last season72%needs 51% to break even16 of 29 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.7Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 hits allowedDrew Rasmussen · Today 8:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 12 of 34· this season35%needs 48% to break even7 of 29 on the road | Record is this season's | -32.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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