This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 0% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 0% to break even | 0%–35% | evenwon 0%, needs 0% |
| Last 10 games | 0 of 100%needs 0% to break even | 0%–21% | evenwon 0%, needs 0% |
| Last 15 games | 0 of 150%needs 0% to break even | 0%–15% | evenwon 0%, needs 0% |
| This season | 0 of 820%needs 0% to break even | 0%–3% | evenwon 0%, needs 0% |
| Every game | 0 of 820%needs 0% to break even | 0%–3% | evenwon 0%, needs 0% |
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Home runs in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Home runs | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 15 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 25 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 24 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 16 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 9 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 8 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 25 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 21 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 8 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 5 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 31 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 29 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 25 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 21 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 20 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 19 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 11 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 9 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 8 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 7 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 6 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 4 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 3 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 2 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jul 1 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 29 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 28 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 27 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 26 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 24 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 23 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 22 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 21 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 20 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 19 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 18 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 17 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jun 16 | 0 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.