This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 48% to break even | 27%–73% | 2 points betterwon 50%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 48% to break even | 28%–67% | 1 points shortwon 47%, needs 48% |
| This season | 4 of 757%needs 48% to break even | 29%–81% | 9 points betterwon 57%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 16 of 3447%needs 48% to break even | 34%–61% | 1 points shortwon 47%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 20 of 4149%needs 48% to break even | 36%–61% | 1 points betterwon 49%, needs 48% |
Tonight MON plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against LILL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against mon -0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 17 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | METZ | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 13 | NAN | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | NAN | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | METZ | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 16 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.