This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 65% to break even | 44%–95% | 15 points betterwon 80%, needs 65% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 65% to break even | 54%–93% | 15 points betterwon 80%, needs 65% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 65% to break even | 46%–83% | 2 points betterwon 67%, needs 65% |
| This season | 7 of 978%needs 65% to break even | 50%–92% | 13 points betterwon 78%, needs 65% |
| Last season | 19 of 3850%needs 65% to break even | 37%–63% | 15 points shortwon 50%, needs 65% |
| Every game | 26 of 4755%needs 65% to break even | 43%–67% | 9 points shortwon 55%, needs 65% |
Tonight ATM plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DEP. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 game total, ATM gamesAtletico · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 team totalAtletico · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET |
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 16 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 19 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | GIR | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| May 12 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | OVI | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Feb 21 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Feb 15 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | MLL | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Jan 18 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | GIR | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 13 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | OVI | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 7 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | MLL | 2 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| 19 of 38· last season50%needs 41% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -22.0Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 game total, ATM gamesAtletico · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 28 of 38· last season74%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 29 of 38· last season76%needs 59% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.4Not beating its price |
| ATM -2.5 spreadAtletico · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -24.8Not beating its price |
| ATM to win moneylineAtletico · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | -360at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 78% to break even | -25.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 team totalAtletico · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 38· last season24%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.9Not beating its price |
| ATM -1.5 spreadAtletico · Sat, Oct 24, 3:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 4 of 9· this season44%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | -34.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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