This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 78% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 78% to break even | 65%–100% | 22 points betterwon 100%, needs 78% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 78% to break even | 44%–87% | 8 points shortwon 70%, needs 78% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 78% to break even | 52%–87% | 5 points shortwon 73%, needs 78% |
| This season | 7 of 978%needs 78% to break even | 50%–92% | evenwon 78%, needs 78% |
| Last season | 21 of 3855%needs 78% to break even | 42%–68% | 23 points shortwon 55%, needs 78% |
| Every game | 28 of 4760%needs 78% to break even | 48%–71% | 19 points shortwon 60%, needs 78% |
Tonight ATM plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against DEP. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against atm to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 team totalAtletico · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET |
| Beat 0.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 16 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 19 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | GIR | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| May 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 2 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 22 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | OVI | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 21 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 15 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 8 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | MLL | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Jan 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | GIR | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 2 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | OVI | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 27 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | MLL | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 17 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| 29 of 38· last season76%needs 59% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.4Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 game total, ATM gamesAtletico · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 28 of 38· last season74%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 game total, ATM gamesAtletico · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 65% to break even | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 game total, ATM gamesAtletico · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 19 of 38· last season50%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 game total, ATM gamesAtletico · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 42% to break even | -24.1Not beating its price |
| ATM -2.5 spreadAtletico · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -24.8Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 team totalAtletico · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 9 of 38· last season24%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.9Not beating its price |
| ATM -1.5 spreadAtletico · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 4 of 9· this season44%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | -34.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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