This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 79% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 79% to break even | 65%–100% | 21 points betterwon 100%, needs 79% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 79% to break even | 54%–93% | 1 points betterwon 80%, needs 79% |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 79% to break even | 67%–95% | 8 points betterwon 87%, needs 79% |
| This season | 7 of 978%needs 79% to break even | 50%–92% | 1 points shortwon 78%, needs 79% |
| Last season | 35 of 3892%needs 79% to break even | 82%–97% | 13 points betterwon 92%, needs 79% |
| Every game | 42 of 4789%needs 79% to break even | 80%–95% | 11 points betterwon 89%, needs 79% |
Tonight ALA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MCF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
ALA goals in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | ALA goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 15 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 20 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 15 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 23 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | OVI | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| May 13 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | MLL | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 21 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 13 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Feb 23 | GIR | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 14 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 8 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 30 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | OVI | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 20 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 6 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | GIR | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 20 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | MLL | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 24 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 22 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Aug 16 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 team totalAlavés · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 12 of 38· last season32%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -37.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 team totalAlavés · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +296at Kalshi | 2 of 9· this season22%needs 25% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 game total, ALA gamesAlavés · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +110at BetUS | 19 of 38· last season50%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.1Not beating its price | |
| ALA -1.5 spreadAlavés · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | +202at Polymarket | 2 of 9· this season22%needs 33% to break even | Record is this season's | -26.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 game total, ALA gamesAlavés · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 19 of 38· last season50%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.1Not beating its price | |
| ALA to win moneylineAlavés · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -130at DraftKings | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 57% to break even | -38.0Not beating its price | ||
| ALA -0.5 spreadAlavés · Tomorrow 3:00 PM ET | -131at BetOnline | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 57% to break even | -38.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.