This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 56% to break even | 27%–86% | 4 points betterwon 60%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 56% to break even | 44%–87% | 14 points betterwon 70%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 56% to break even | 52%–87% | 18 points betterwon 73%, needs 56% |
| This season | 4 of 757%needs 56% to break even | 29%–81% | 1 points betterwon 57%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 29 of 3876%needs 56% to break even | 63%–86% | 21 points betterwon 76%, needs 56% |
| Every game | 33 of 4573%needs 56% to break even | 61%–83% | 18 points betterwon 73%, needs 56% |
Tonight FIO plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against under 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 11 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 20 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 13 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | VER | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | CRE | 5 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Mar 8 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 2 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 23 | PIS | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Feb 14 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 24 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 18 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 7 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | CRE | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 27 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | VER | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 6 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 29 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | PIS | 0 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 game total, FIO gamesFiorentina · Sun, Oct 25, 7:30 AM ET | +112at BetUS | 3 of 7· this season43%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIO +1.5 spreadFiorentina · Sun, Oct 25, 7:30 AM ET | PIN-107at Pinnacle | 32 of 38· last season84%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.8Not beating its price | |
| FIO to win moneylineFiorentina · Sun, Oct 25, 7:30 AM ET | PIN+703at Pinnacle | 9 of 38· last season24%needs 12% to break even | Record is last season's | -3.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.