This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 12% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 12% to break even | 5%–56% | 8 points betterwon 20%, needs 12% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 12% to break even | 7%–46% | 8 points betterwon 20%, needs 12% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 12% to break even | 13%–48% | 14 points betterwon 27%, needs 12% |
| This season | 1 of 714%needs 12% to break even | 3%–45% | 2 points betterwon 14%, needs 12% |
| Last season | 9 of 3824%needs 12% to break even | 14%–37% | 11 points betterwon 24%, needs 12% |
| Every game | 10 of 4522%needs 12% to break even | 14%–34% | 10 points betterwon 22%, needs 12% |
Tonight FIO plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against fio to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIO +1.5 spreadFiorentina · Sun, Oct 25, 7:30 AM ET |
| Beat 0.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 11 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 29 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 4 | -4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | VER | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Mar 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 16 | CRE | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Mar 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 23 | PIS | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | CRE | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Dec 27 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | VER | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 6 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | PIS | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 21 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| 32 of 38· last season84%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -1.8Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 game total, FIO gamesFiorentina · Sun, Oct 25, 7:30 AM ET | -126at Kalshi | 29 of 38· last season76%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 game total, FIO gamesFiorentina · Sun, Oct 25, 7:30 AM ET | +189at Kalshi | 19 of 38· last season50%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 game total, FIO gamesFiorentina · Sun, Oct 25, 7:30 AM ET | +112at BetUS | 3 of 7· this season43%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -29.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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