This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 43% to break even | 19%–65% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 43% to break even | 28%–67% | 3 points betterwon 47%, needs 43% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 43% to break even | 10%–59% | 15 points shortwon 29%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 19 of 3850%needs 43% to break even | 37%–63% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 21 of 4547%needs 43% to break even | 35%–59% | 3 points betterwon 47%, needs 43% |
Tonight CAG plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against BOL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 19 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 22 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 17 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 9 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Apr 17 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | CRE | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Apr 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 20 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 15 | PIS | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Mar 7 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 21 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 16 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | VER | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 24 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 8 | CRE | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Jan 2 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 27 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | PIS | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Dec 13 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | VER | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 game total, CAG gamesCagliari · Sat, Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | -143at Bovada | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 59% to break even | Record is this season's | -21.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAG to win moneylineCagliari · Sat, Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | LVG+230at LowVig | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 30% to break even | -1.9Not beating its price | ||
| CAG 0 spreadCagliari · Sat, Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | +124at BetUS | 6 of 9· last 10 games, 1 skipped67%needs 45% to break even | -8.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 0.5 team totalCagliari · Sat, Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | +189at Kalshi | 14 of 38· last season37%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 team totalCagliari · Sat, Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | -263at Kalshi | 26 of 38· last season68%needs 72% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 1.5 team totalCagliari · Sat, Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | +198at Kalshi | 12 of 38· last season32%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 0.5 team totalCagliari · Sat, Oct 24, 9:00 AM ET | -263at Kalshi | 24 of 38· last season63%needs 72% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.