This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 48% to break even | 13%–56% | 18 points shortwon 30%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 48% to break even | 13%–48% | 21 points shortwon 27%, needs 48% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 48% to break even | 10%–59% | 19 points shortwon 29%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 7 of 3818%needs 48% to break even | 10%–31% | 29 points shortwon 18%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 9 of 4520%needs 48% to break even | 12%–31% | 28 points shortwon 20%, needs 48% |
Tonight ATA plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against FRO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against over 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 31 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 23 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 22 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| May 10 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 2 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | VER | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Mar 14 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 7 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 14 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | CRE | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Feb 1 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 16 | PIS | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Jan 10 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 6 | VER | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | CRE | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 24 | PIS | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 game total, ATA gamesAtalanta BC · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM ET | +202at Polymarket | 24 of 38· last season63%needs 33% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 3.5 game total, ATA gamesAtalanta BC · Sun, Oct 25, 10:00 AM ET | -122at Bovada | 31 of 38· last season82%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.