This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 61% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 61% to break even | 14%–73% | 21 points shortwon 40%, needs 61% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 61% to break even | 27%–73% | 11 points shortwon 50%, needs 61% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 61% to break even | 22%–61% | 21 points shortwon 40%, needs 61% |
| This season | 4 of 757%needs 61% to break even | 29%–81% | 4 points shortwon 57%, needs 61% |
| Last season | 20 of 3853%needs 61% to break even | 40%–65% | 8 points shortwon 53%, needs 61% |
| Every game | 24 of 4553%needs 61% to break even | 41%–65% | 8 points shortwon 53%, needs 61% |
Tonight MIL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against BOL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against mil to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 game total, MIL gamesAC Milan · Wed, Oct 28, 1:30 PM ET |
| Beat 0.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 28 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| May 3 | -2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 19 | VER | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Apr 11 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 1 | CRE | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Feb 22 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 13 | PIS | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Feb 3 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 15 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | VER | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 24 | PIS | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | CRE | -1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 55% to break even |
| -19.0Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 game total, MIL gamesAC Milan · Wed, Oct 28, 1:30 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 34% to break even | -20.4Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 game total, MIL gamesAC Milan · Wed, Oct 28, 1:30 PM ET | PIN+101at Pinnacle | 21 of 38· last season55%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.8Not beating its price |
| MIL -1 spreadAC Milan · Wed, Oct 28, 1:30 PM ET | +108at Bovada | 2 of 5· this season40%needs 48% to break even | Record is this season's | -32.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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