This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 39% to break even | 27%–86% | 21 points betterwon 60%, needs 39% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 39% to break even | 54%–93% | 41 points betterwon 80%, needs 39% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 39% to break even | 52%–87% | 34 points betterwon 73%, needs 39% |
| This season | 5 of 771%needs 39% to break even | 41%–90% | 32 points betterwon 71%, needs 39% |
| Last season | 23 of 3861%needs 39% to break even | 47%–72% | 21 points betterwon 61%, needs 39% |
| Every game | 28 of 4562%needs 39% to break even | 50%–73% | 23 points betterwon 62%, needs 39% |
Tonight ROMA plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NAP. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against roma to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 31 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Aug 24 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| May 24 | VER | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| May 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| May 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| May 4 | 4 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Apr 25 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 10 | PIS | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Apr 5 | -3 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 15 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 22 | CRE | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Feb 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 9 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 29 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 20 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | CRE | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | VER | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 14 | -1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | PIS | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Aug 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.