This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 35% to break even | 27%–86% | 25 points betterwon 60%, needs 35% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 35% to break even | 27%–73% | 15 points betterwon 50%, needs 35% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 35% to break even | 17%–54% | 2 points shortwon 33%, needs 35% |
| This season | 5 of 1145%needs 35% to break even | 24%–68% | 10 points betterwon 45%, needs 35% |
| Last season | 30 of 8834%needs 35% to break even | 26%–43% | 1 points shortwon 34%, needs 35% |
| Every game | 35 of 9935%needs 35% to break even | 28%–44% | evenwon 35%, needs 35% |
Tonight PIT plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NSH. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against over 7.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 7.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 16 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 30 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 29 | 1 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 27 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 22 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 14 | 12 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Apr 12 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 5 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 13 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 30 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 26 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 24 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 22 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 10 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 1 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 5 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Feb 2 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 25 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 22 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 21 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 19 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 17 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 15 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 11 | 1 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 10 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 8 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Jan 3 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 30 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 10 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 23 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 16 | 10 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 13 | 11 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 1 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 28 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 21 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 14 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 6 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 3 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 27 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 9 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 23 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 21 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 16 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 7 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Penguins · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 30 of 88· last season34%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 6.5 game total, PIT gamesPittsburgh Penguins · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 40 of 88· last season45%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT to win moneylinePittsburgh Penguins · Tomorrow 7:00 PM ET | -139at Polymarket | 43 of 88· last season49%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -36.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.