This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 36% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 36% to break even | 13%–56% | 6 points shortwon 30%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 36% to break even | 17%–54% | 2 points shortwon 33%, needs 36% |
| This season | 3 of 933%needs 36% to break even | 14%–60% | 2 points shortwon 33%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 35 of 7646%needs 36% to break even | 37%–55% | 10 points betterwon 46%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 38 of 8545%needs 36% to break even | 36%–54% | 9 points betterwon 45%, needs 36% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against COL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime goal in each game against yes, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Anytime goal | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 20 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Apr 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 21 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 19 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 8 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Mar 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 25 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 5 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Feb 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Feb 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 29 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 26 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 24 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 23 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Jan 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 31 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 22 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 24 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 20 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 23 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 13 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.