This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 1100%needs 38% to break even | 27%–100% | 62 points betterwon 100%, needs 38% | 4.8total goals |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 5100%needs 38% to break even | 65%–100% | 62 points betterwon 100%, needs 38% | 4.3total goals |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 956%needs 38% to break even | 30%–78% | 17 points betterwon 56%, needs 38% | 4.9total goals |
| This season | 5 of 5100%needs 38% to break even | 65%–100% | 62 points betterwon 100%, needs 38% | 4.3total goals |
| Last season | 18 of 6727%needs 38% to break even | 19%–37% | 12 points shortwon 27%, needs 38% | 6.2total goals |
| Every game | 23 of 7232%needs 38% to break even | 24%–41% | 7 points shortwon 32%, needs 38% | 6total goals |
Tonight DAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 8 of 32 at home.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total goals in each game against under 5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total goals | Beat 5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 22 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Oct 20 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Oct 17 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 14 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Oct 13 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Oct 10 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Oct 8 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Oct 3 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Oct 2 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Apr 30 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Apr 28 | 6 | -1 | Lost | |
| Apr 25 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Apr 22 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Apr 20 | 6 | -1 | Lost | |
| Apr 18 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Apr 15 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Apr 13 | 11 | -6 | Lost | |
| Apr 11 | 2 | +3 | Won | |
| Apr 9 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Apr 7 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Apr 4 | 2 | +3 | Won | |
| Apr 2 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Mar 31 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Mar 29 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Mar 28 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Mar 26 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Mar 24 | 10 | -5 | Lost | |
| Mar 22 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Mar 21 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Mar 18 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Mar 16 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Mar 14 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Mar 12 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Mar 10 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Mar 8 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Mar 6 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Mar 3 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Mar 2 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Feb 28 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Feb 25 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Feb 4 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Feb 2 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 31 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Jan 29 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Jan 27 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 23 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Jan 22 | 1 | +4 | Won | |
| Jan 20 | 8 | -3 | Lost | |
| Jan 18 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Jan 15 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Jan 13 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Jan 12 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Jan 10 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Jan 7 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Jan 6 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Jan 4 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Jan 1 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Dec 31 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Dec 27 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Dec 23 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 6 | -1 | Lost | |
| Dec 19 | 11 | -6 | Lost | |
| Dec 18 | 8 | -3 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Dec 13 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Dec 9 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Dec 5 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Dec 3 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Dec 2 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Nov 30 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Nov 26 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Nov 25 | 11 | -6 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Nov 20 | 6 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 18 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Nov 15 | 6 | -1 | Lost | |
| Nov 13 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Nov 11 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Nov 9 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Nov 6 | 12 | -7 | Lost | |
| Nov 4 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 3 | +2 | Won | |
| Oct 28 | 1 | +4 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Oct 25 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Oct 23 | 5 | 0 | Tie | |
| Oct 21 | 6 | -1 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | 4 | +1 | Won | |
| Oct 16 | 8 | -3 | Lost | |
| Oct 14 | 7 | -2 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | 9 | -4 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 game total, DAL gamesDallas Stars · Today 6:10 PM ET | NV+106at Novig | 49 of 88· last season56%needs 49% to break even24 of 49 at home | Record is last season's | -32.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 6 game total, DAL gamesDallas Stars · Today 6:10 PM ET | +115at Bovada | 43 of 82· last season52%needs 47% to break even19 of 44 at home | Record is last season's | -33.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 6.5 game total, DAL gamesDallas Stars · Today 6:10 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 43 of 88· last season49%needs 39% to break even19 of 49 at home | Record is last season's | -27.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.