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NFLPlayer propReceptions
Michael Mayer under 3.5 receptions
Won10 of 13last season · 77%
Best price+104FanDuel
Price needs49.0%wins to break even
Every game13 of 19this season and last
Trend score-7.5Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 49% to break even | 27%–86% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 49% to break even | 35%–81% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 49% to break even | 52%–87% | 24 points betterwon 73%, needs 49% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 49% to break even | 22%–78% | 1 points betterwon 50%, needs 49% |
| Last season | 10 of 1377%needs 49% to break even | 54%–90% | 28 points betterwon 77%, needs 49% |
| Every game | 13 of 1968%needs 49% to break even | 50%–83% | 19 points betterwon 68%, needs 49% |
Games like tonight
Tonight LV plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against LAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Michael Mayer under 3.5 receptions6 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receptions in each game against under 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  BUF | 7 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  NE | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  KC | 8 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  NO | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  LAC | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  MIA | 6 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | KC | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  NYG | 9 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  HOU | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  PHI | 0 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 |  CLE | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 |  DAL | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 |  DEN | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 |  JAX | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | KC | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  TEN | 5 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  WSH | 0 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | LAC | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | NE | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 receptionsMichael Mayer · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -121at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 55% to break even | Record is this season's | -31.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 4.5 receptionsMichael Mayer · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 38% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Michael Mayer in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30.5 receiving yardsMichael Mayer · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -111at BetMGM | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsMichael Mayer · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -112at DraftKings | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsMichael Mayer · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -21.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 30.5 receiving yardsMichael Mayer · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |  -114at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.